What’s going on with the RF 200-800 backorder

[LaneW]

Estimated shipping date was Dec 14.  I ordered through Adorama, and they just say that they are backordered.  Seems to be the same story ordering direct from Canon and other sellers.  What is really going on here?

[shadowsports]

Greetings,

This is difficult and really speculation.  I don't believe anyone has a great deal of insight into this.  Demand still appears to exceed what supply chain can deliver.  Just a guess, I think you are looking at a month (at least).  I have a stock notification set at B&H and have heard nothing.  Since you have ordered, you have a spot in line.     

[leazesend]

I ordered from B&H on November 2nd, which I believe was the day the lens was announced. Still on backorder for me, with diddly squat information on when I might actually get it. Based on my experience with my R5 order I'm guessing I might get the lens sometime in summer 2024.

[tomynysmon]

I was lucky enough to get a call from London Camera Exchange because I enquired about this lens about 6 weeks ago, they had noted my query and when one came in the called me.  I snapped it up on the spot and now I have this beauty in my hands. So call your camera shops and leave your details and ask ghem to call you when they get one in, it seems they are getting one or two here and there as opposed to mass deliveries.

[mdougc]

I ordered from YM Camera on Nov. 18th. (a really good store in Ohio)
Received yesterday!
Yay for me!

[Tronhard]

I have, on good authority, one reason why so many things from across the whole range of traded goods, but including the 200-800 and the PS G7XII are not appearing as expected.   The son of one of my ex-colleagues works with logistics and says the whole global shipping industry is in crisis right now, and it's a perfect storm of restrictions in access to canals.
The Suez Canal would normally offer a fast passage between Europe and Asia, but the current security situation culminating in attacks on ships by Houthis has resulted in significant delays and reductions in ships attempting that passage.  See this article by a major shipping company:  Suez Canal vs. Cape of Good Hope: current situatio... | myKN (kuehne-nagel.com).  
At the same time a similar situation is happening with shipping seeking to transit between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans via the Panama Canal.  This time the culprit is not security, it's lack of water, see: How could Panama Canal restrictions affect supply chains? | McKinsey

With threats to both of these shortcuts in force, there has been significant disruption to shipping around the globe because a ship that is delayed by a week in going via the Suez canal, may miss its unloading slot in a busy European port and not be available for the next sailing to the east coast of the USA, for example.  Similarly, ships stuck either at side of the Panama Canal will not be available for their next schedules sailings for a significant period and this results in a domino effect that impacts manufacturing, trade and markets around the world.

The ability of vessels to navigate these canals is not fully predictable.  Some shippers will just divert and accept a delay for the benefit of certainty of transit - hoping to arrange a docking slot at a predictable time, while others will join the queue for a canal, hoping for a lucky break to meet their schedules.  Furthermore, they may suffer a double-impact to some sailings that were going to use both shortcuts.
Shipping is a highly choreographed art of matching cargoes from ports to destinations, ships and schedules that are usually planned out some time in advance, but when the reliability of those schedules is impacted it has a growing impact as logistics and shipping companies scramble to rejig routes, schedules and cargoes.   Some cargoes that are more critical - such as food, fuels, or strategic supplies will be given priority over consumer items - I guess you can see where this is going.

It doesn't have to impact completed devices, it could be the delivery of components that will be incorporated into finished products: from high-precision screws, to glass grinding paste, to even the metals required or the chips and circuit boards that now form every part of electronic system.   Mature product lines may have some slack and inventory to manage variations in delivery capacity, but new systems may well have no spare component inventory so the whole production and delivery of completed units goes totally awry.

From the consumers' end of things it's highly frustrating, and if one considers that no manufacturer actually wants to not deliver to customers, it's going to be pretty galling for the maker.  A company may forecast a much delayed delivery date, only to be surprised by the arrival of those goods well before expected - that's a happy result, but when it works the other way around customers get upset.  While it might be tempting to hold back making statements, it is here that there is a tendency in human nature to fill an information vacuum with all sorts of frustrations, and conspiracies.

I suspect Canon, like many other companies is a victim of this situation, but I would gently suggest that some clarity of information is needed and it is better to under-promise and over-deliver than the other way round.

In the meantime, let's consider that we can actually survive the delayed arrival of our favourite photography gear, but we are not in the position of being short on food, fuel, medical supplies or other critical items - those get priority for good reason.

[jimspin]

Thank you for your explanation.  As a person that worked in the international business world I can relate.  However, camera lenses are not cars.  Air freight is an obvious solution if that is the final bottle neck.  Canon has been tight lipped about the back orders. So the rumors fly. The best solution to the situation is for Canon to make an official statement to the customers that have waiting months (like me).  Canon's poor business practices are driving customers away.   

[Tronhard]

I am not here to defend Canon on this and, like you, I think that the tendency to stay tight-lipped is not helping us as  customers, or them as the provider - I hope I was clear in expressing that.

Air freight is not a panacea and it has limited capacity. There are also many more shippers competing for that air capacity too.  It doesn't work as an instant fix when the components are already on a ship, or sitting amongst many thousands of other containers in a transit port somewhere.  
I suspect these two events have hit around the worst possible moment for Canon, at a time when they were expecting smooth and predictable delivery of both components and finished units, and they have (like their component manufacturers) been working on just-in-time delivery of various elements and sub-assemblies.   I speculate that they may well be air freighting some production and that could be why some are getting their orders and some not. But I cannot say that for sure.

What adds to the challenge is that stock is targeted to specific locations for specific outlets and stores or on-sellers and the timing of those orders may be such that clients have the perception that others who order later are getting their goods earlier - in fact that may be the situation.  For example, product destined for Canada may not be diverted to the US because of differences in documentation and warranty, while things like chargers will be an issue between different regions.  Thus, it likely is a case of the order path is maintained and each path varies dramatically.

Japanese society has a long history of being rather tight-lipped about unfortunate situations, it's a cultural characteristic that we have seen in major events like Fukushima.   Mind you, it's not alone in that...  It jars with our western desire of 'telling it like it is,' and transparency.   It's apparently a hard habit to break.

[murwille]

Trevor,

Thanks so much for your detailed and well articulated replies!  I was late to the party as I contemplated ordering this lens until January 2.  I wasn't sure about the aperture range of the lens, but saw the mostly glowing reviews and realized that today's noise reduction options made this lens a viable option.  Like everyone else I'm not thrilled with the situation, but now that I understand the likely causes, it makes the waiting a bit easier.  Thanks again!

[Tronhard]

I am glad thank you.  Context in any situation is critical and there is a lot of that surrounding this.

[jimspin]

Enough with the quotes - why can't Canon conduct themselves like a reputable business and explain the themselves.