topic Re: What do you think of Canon saying "The camera market has largely bottomed out"? in EOS DSLR & Mirrorless Cameras

What do you think of Canon saying "The camera market has largely bottomed out"?

photodigichick — Mon, 08 Aug 2022 19:14:37 GMT

"The camera market has largely bottomed out at its current size. Going forward, we expect the professional and advanced amateur segment to expand further and that products will become more highly developed. Accordingly, we expect the overall market to grow from now on. As for DSLR cameras, we will continue to supply products as long as there is demand."

As a long time camera customer (decades), I am disappointed by this announcement. Knowing that they are changing their focus to more professional which would mean a higher price point. Having purchased two Canon mirrorless cameras and both being disappointments, I do not have faith in that sort of shift in their production. It seems they are a follower and not a leader in mirrorless technology. Not trying to stir up anything as I own another major brand that is mirrorless and it is leaps and bounds above all the Canon gear I own which is substantial after decades.

What are your thoughts on the announcement?

Re: What do you think of Canon saying "The camera market has largely bottomed out"?

Tronhard — Mon, 08 Aug 2022 20:16:03 GMT

Like you, I have been a Canon user for over four decades (although I use Fuji, Nikon, Olympus and Sony to a much lesser extent). I was not surprised at the announcement by Canon - I think other manufacturers are seeing much the same trend. Let me explain why I think that is true...

Go back to the start of the century. Digital was just starting, there were no significant cell phone cameras and the market was very different within the digital camera environment. Most people were buying point and shoot cameras, and the few DSLRs available were extremely expensive. Actually, Canon created a massive price drop with their EOS D30 (not the 30D), a 3.3MP APS-C CMOS camera that saw it come out at $3,000, compared with previous cameras that were around $25-30,000, and used CCD sensors that were both more expensive to make, demanded much more power and attracted dust like magnets. For the following decade P&S and DSLRs continued to develop, and the market grew as people abandoned their film cameras in favour of digital.

The game changer was the rise of smartphones that had massively improved camera technology. While the sensors remained small, they benefitted from the explosion in computational photography to enhance and improve both still and video imagery. That, combined with the benefit that cell phones could immediately process images using in-camera apps and upload them to social media sites, started a decline in dedicated camera sales that has continued and broadened up the level of camera models. Not only were these units relatively cheap: coming as part of a smartphone people bought anyway, but they were extremely easy to use - something that could not be said for a novice learning to use an Interchangeable Lens Camera.

So, we have seen the market eroded from the bottom up as casual users abandoned traditional cameras and went to the 'new Brownie': the smartphone. Having fatally undermined the P&S market that put a lot of pressure on the amateur photography market. Canon have always had a major income source from their lower-end DSLRs: they are relatively easy to use, and there has been a huge range of optics. Still, these cameras, and all of the ones above, had to gain more and more features to stay in the game, and that cost money - although, surprisingly, they did not adopt the lessons from cellphone makers to change their interfaces, that remained largely traditional to those from decades before.

The rise of Mirrorless Interchangeable Lens Cameras (MILCs) has been a further game changer. For all makers it has required a huge investment in R&D, design, and up-tooling to deliver the systems like Canon's R-series or Nikon's Z-series, to name but two.

Given that cost, combined with the absolute mayhem caused by COVID, and the resulting chaos in manufacturing and logistics, the 2020's have been a challenging decade for all makers. Sony had led the MILC charge, and had a firm lead in the MILC market that was challenging to Canon and Nikon to break into. Some enthusiasts are notoriously fickle when it comes to gear - switching brands to follow the latest tech. Gear Acquisition Syndrome(GAS) is a hallmark of those that believe that their latent genius is held back by equipment and constantly chase the holy grail of that perfect camera to release that talent. I think that is far less true of the professional market where practitioners are more pragmatic: using a camera as a tool and not changing that unless it offers real benefit to their business.

All that said, it has become clear that the P&S, and DSLR markets are dying - much to the dismay of a group that love that platform. This is not new: it has happened with every significant technology change, and is called disruptive for a good reason. However, given all of the above, Canon chose to continue its supply of DSLRs as long as the market supported that, but the money had to go into the new generation of MILC cameras. The M-series has been a bit of an odd-ball. It uses MILC tech in a much more compact form and lower price point, and has catered to a market, especially strong in Asia and Europe, of people who embrace the smaller form factors of a MILC for travel, convenience, and especially Vlogging. Again, Canon have continued production of a somewhat reduced range to support the market as long as it is viable - no-one wants to turn down good income. However, it is clear that development has ceased in the DSLR and M-MILCs in favour of putting those resources into developing the R platform. Again, that has been hampered by COVID: both directly in terms of shut-downs and disruption of manufacturing and unreliable logistics that make a smooth transition more challenging.

The first R-series MILC cameras that Canon came out with were clearly for the high-end of the market: pro's and serious enthusiasts. After a slightly tepid effort with the R, and more egalitarian effort with the RP, there has been a strong offering a the higher end with R3, R5 and at the Prosumer end with the R6. The recent release of the new ASP-C platform represented by the R7 and R10, signal that Canon is keen to capture that much greater middle ground: the hobbyists. It signals that Canon is swinging its full range across to R-series MILCs, and will likely erode offerings in the DSLR and M market spaces, as people swing across to the new platform: offering significant improvements in both stills and video shooting.

So, when Canon say that they see the market as bottoming out, I personally see that they mean that they think that the decline in camera numbers sold will stabilize and flatten (ergo 'bottom out'). Without doubt, R7 and R10 are enticing offerings at their price points, and the ability to port across legacy EF and EF-S lenses is supportive of the move.

In the end, to hold their place against the ever-evolving smartphone, they have had to invest in much better tech, and that costs money, yet they have had to do so in a dramatically shrinking marketspace and against stiff competition from other major brands.

I think it is fair to say the P&S is dead, replaced by the smartphone, but a market of amateurs, enthusiasts, prosumers, and pros still exists and this is smaller pool all dedicated manufacturers are fighting to swim in right now.

Canon have made two statements that you quoted and as I interpret that, I actually take some comfort in them.

The camera market has largely bottomed out at its current size: after a period of carnage, the camera market is stabilizing and that is a good thing for manufacturers and consumers, because it provides a basis of confidence for future investment and development. In a way it can assure us that Canon isn't going anywhere.

"...we will continue to supply products as long as there is demand" there is some comfort and assurance here for DSLR and M-series owners that, while they may not get any new bodies or lenses, as long as people buy what's on offer, they can get product. Of course, it is obvious that with the latest APS-C R models they are offering a path to woo away enthusiasts to the R-mount but they haven't suddenly ceased production of those legacy platforms. They are simply stating an economic reality.

Re: What do you think of Canon saying "The camera market has largely bottomed out"?

ebiggs1 — Tue, 09 Aug 2022 15:22:29 GMT

" Knowing that they are changing their focus to more professional which would mean a higher price point."

All camera manufacturers have let the iphone maker's eat their collective lunch. In my DSLR 101 classes, I can't even guess how many folks that picked up a Rebel and expected it to be as easy to use as an iphone. They even expected it to work in a similar manner. Camera makers could have done that but they didn't. They simply conceded that part of the market. It will never return!

Re: What do you think of Canon saying "The camera market has largely bottomed out"?

wq9nsc — Wed, 10 Aug 2022 00:45:56 GMT

I much prefer a DSLR for the type of photography I do. My 1DX II and 1DX III bodies have never created an issue or had a glitch in hundreds of thousands of captures in the rain, snow, and extreme cold and the battery life is excellent with several thousand exposures between battery pack changes. The optical viewfinder shows me in real time exactly what is happening, I don't want an electronically processed view. The lightest lens I typically use is a 70-200 f2.8 and I shoot with telephoto primes up through the 800 f5.6 so saving a few ounces in body weight is a negative because the solid construction of the 1DX series helps provide balance for the big primes. And I have zero interest in shooting video with these cameras which is one of the reasons for the move to mirrorless since it is derived from classic video camera architecture.

I will pick up a second 1DX III this year although for all practical purposes, I am pretty ambivalent between my 1DX II and 1DX III bodies and I still carry a 1DX as a spare to events because it is still an incredibly capable camera that like my other 1DX bodies has never let me down. Noise under low light conditions is very close between the 1DX II and III, enough that rarely is there a significant difference. The 1DX III has additional AF capabilities with more points and eye and head/helmet tracking capability but for most events I am using a single AF point to pick out what I want in the action so the added capabilities are a crutch I rarely use.

Ultimately, if I keep doing photography long enough I may be forced into mirrorless only due to lack of availability of professional DSLR models but that will be the only reason. Long after GM and others produced DOHC and other different architecture engines, the classic OHV design was used for a huge part of their output because the attributes of the architecture were perfect for the application. Different platforms/technologies have different attributes, benefits, and drawbacks and mirrorless, particularly with Canon's efforts to date, is far from being the universal perfect solution for all photography needs.

Rodger

Re: What do you think of Canon saying "The camera market has largely bottomed out"?

ebiggs1 — Wed, 10 Aug 2022 14:36:23 GMT

I still have my 1D and 1D Mk IIn. Both still work.😁

Re: What do you think of Canon saying "The camera market has largely bottomed out"?

photodigichick — Wed, 10 Aug 2022 16:04:09 GMT

Don't go mirrorless...not with Canon. They have had superior DSLRs and in the mirrorless category, they are lacking. I purchased one and wished I had switched to a completely different brand because of all the issues I have had.

Re: What do you think of Canon saying "The camera market has largely bottomed out"?

photodigichick — Wed, 10 Aug 2022 16:09:15 GMT

Cell phone cameras have taken away the P&S market. In agreement 100%.

However, is that the same customer as the DSLR? Was the last "pro-sumer" DSLR camera the 5DMIV in 2016? Has there not been a demand for a DSLR since 2016? Or has the company's focus shifted away from DSLR to mirrorless?

Re: What do you think of Canon saying "The camera market has largely bottomed out"?

photodigichick — Wed, 10 Aug 2022 16:12:58 GMT

I still have my 5DMIII and love it. Purchased an R6 and hate it. Broke after 13 months with a $500 repair bill. Would buy another, newer DSLR if one were offered by Canon, but it isn't. Don't see the point in investing any further in them if they see me as obsolete.

Re: What do you think of Canon saying "The camera market has largely bottomed out"?

Tronhard — Wed, 10 Aug 2022 19:03:23 GMT

All major players have recognized the technology shift started by Sony about five years ago and as the technology has changed they have moved with it. People were saying much the same thing about Canon when they moved from the FD mount to the EF mount and brought in the EOS system.

Canon are still making the 1DX and 5D series DSLRs but the market and the money have moved to mirrorless - it is what it is.

Re: What do you think of Canon saying "The camera market has largely bottomed out"?

Tronhard — Wed, 10 Aug 2022 19:09:43 GMT

I went mirrorless with Canon about two years ago (although I still have all my DSLRs). The early units: EOS R and RP were not their best effort IMHO - I would describe them as 'tepid'. However, the R5, R6 and R3 are performing well for me, and have improved with a series of firmware updates to resolve early issues. This is not unique to Canon - Fuji pioneered the application of the Kaizen approach - continuous improvement, in this case via firmware updates, and that is one of the reasons why they have a very loyal following. Sony and Nikon are also pursuing this path that is as much dictated by the fact that cameras are becoming much more computerized, especially with the application of computational algorithms for lens correction, autofocus and tracking. We are used to that with our PC's: it was inevitable that it would happen with cameras.

I would be interest to know the details of why you were unhappy - what model or models you were using, lenses and the versions of firmware you were using when you had problems. I would also be interested to know what brand you moved to and how that has worked out for you.

Re: What do you think of Canon saying "The camera market has largely bottomed out"?

photodigichick — Thu, 11 Aug 2022 12:04:03 GMT

I have the R6 and 13 months after purchasing and only 5 months of use (was in the box for the other months due to my illness), it would not focus. This is a known issue with the model. There also seemed to be an issue with the ISO. I could not update the firmware. When I tried to update the firmware from 1.5.2 to the most recent update released in July 2022, I received a gray screen telling me to remove the battery. Canon stated it had to be returned for repair which was $500.

As far as lenses, the focus would not work with any of my lenses or the EF to RF ring adapter. To test the focus I placed three small objects on a table outside in the afternoon shade although it was still very bright. The objects were staggered in distance from the camera. I focused on each object with the same aperture (f8) using a 50mm Canon prime f1.4. The same exercise at f22. The same at f4. In theory the f22 should have all the objects in focus along with the background/foreground and most of the subjects in focus at f8. At f22 and f8 only the center object was in focus and it was not sharp. In addition, the ISO was set to "auto" and it went all the way to 25000 at f22 and 12000 at f8. Mind you, this was in the afternoon on a sunny day. I pulled out my 5DMIII and did the same exercise with results I would expect and no crazy ISOs.

What if someone who didn't know anything about photography had purchased the camera? Would they become frustrasted, think it was them and go back to their smart phone?

The camera is due for delivery today and I will find out details of the repair in the box. The technician I spoke with said "focus recalibration" and did not give me details on the gray screen issue other than it was addressed.

This was not my first run at a Canon mirrorless. It will be my last and I will probably sell it because of the disappointment in features and the repair which is causing me to question the camera's long term reliability which could lead to additional expensive repairs.

I also have a Sony A7RIV which I believe is superior to the Canon mirrorless. In my opinion, it seems as though Canon is behind in the technology which is why I purchased a Sony. When I bought the R6 I was hopeful Canon had figured it out but I was wrong.

Re: What do you think of Canon saying "The camera market has largely bottomed out"?

Tronhard — Thu, 11 Aug 2022 17:43:17 GMT

I am truly and sincerely sorry for your bad experience with the R6. It must have been extremely frustrating and expensive and I can understand why you have a negative feeling about it. It seems like you may have got a dud, and I am not sure why you would have to pay for some of the services applied - but I don't work for Canon and in NZ we have a 5-year warranty that covers a lot more than in North America because of a piece of legislation called the Consumer Guarantees Act that puts a lot more onus on the maker and vendor.

That said, your experience seems to be a relatively isolated case: all manufacturing processes, despite rigorous quality assurance programs, produce units that have issues. It is usually less apparent in the optical alignments and far more likely within the electronics of a unit, which is where I suspect your issues lie. The components that go into a camera come from many sub-contractors these days and, having worked in the computer industry for many years, I know that an electronic component will misbehave more likely early in its life or very late on. I would seem you have encountered one of the former situations. I personally suspect that the fallout from the pandemic has negatively impacted many aspects of the manufacturing processes and am hoping that things settle down in the near future.

I have 2, R6 units and so far they have been totally reliable, and have accepted the multiple firmware updates that I have applied to make the tracking etc. more reliable - which doesn't do much for you, but I did a straw poll of associates who use the gear and apart from some of the early software bugs that were later corrected by firmware, their cameras were all behaving well.

I am not going to try to persuade you that Canon is a great brand, I suspect that horse has bolted, but I personally think they are neither worse nor better than the others. If they weren't, they wouldn't have a market. I have a huge respect for Sony - I shoot with their gear as well, and their use of Zeiss optics is a huge benefit. My personal frustration is the menu interface - compared to that of Canon or Nikon it's brutal. The other thing that may or not impact you is the recorded relatively poor weather sealing in many of their bodies. Other associates who shoot the brand are very reluctant to shoot in dubious weather without extra protection.

All I can do is wish you the best of luck with Sony and hope that the gear you get is able to provide the reliability and results that you hope for.

Re: What do you think of Canon saying "The camera market has largely bottomed out"?

ebiggs1 — Fri, 12 Aug 2022 14:57:36 GMT

I like you reasoning on this. I bet a lot of folks don't realize the true cost. However, I believe your figures are a bit off. Perhaps a zero off? The net cost for my last upgrade from an 8 to the 13 was $350 bucks. Now assuming you have to have a service contract anyway (can't calculate that figure in), even if I did it every year it would never approach or come close to $30,000 bucks. Perhaps $3500 but not $30,000. You can't really include the service provider in the total cost of the upgrade because I doubt many people buy an iPhone without a contract since it is a phone and not just as a camera.

IMHO, it is a mistake to call them a "phone" any longer. They are much more than that for sure.

Re: What do you think of Canon saying "The camera market has largely bottomed out"?

ebiggs1 — Sat, 13 Aug 2022 15:09:08 GMT

"I don't know how you traded in an iPhone 8 for a 13, ..."

We did it, me and my wife, about 6 months ago with T-Mobile. If you had a newer iphone like a 12 it was a free upgrade. It got increasingly more expensive if your iphone was older. That is where the $350 came in for an 8 to a 13. The service contract has no bearing on figuring this cost of upgrade since you would have it regardless of what iphone you own. Our service contract remains the same as it was with the 8 not counting for the inflation upcharge.

T-Mobile advertised this on TV for a long time. That's how we heard about it and took advantage of it. BTW, the 13 has a very good camera in it.